Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
USC’s first conference game as a member of the Big Ten marks the school’s first trip to Michigan in 66 years.
The Trojans and the Wolverines, two glamor programs, tangling in a conference game — that explains everything, really.
Locally, the matchup offers the No. 11 Trojans a chance to cement their status as a College Football Playoff contender. For the 18th-ranked Wolverines, the duel is tantamount to a playoff elimination game: Lose, and the Wolverines would need to run the table to qualify for the CFP.
Nationally, the game provides a chance for the Big Ten to reclaim ground in a potential resume showdown with the SEC over playoff at-large bids — but only if USC wins. Given Michigan’s blowout loss to Texas, the Big Ten would be best served by the Wolverines finishing far down the standings.
Universally, the blue-blood duel in the Big House offers the blueprint for realignment.
Why were Fox and friends (NBC and CBS) willing to pay the Big Ten $1 billion annually for its media rights? For the scene on display Saturday afternoon.
For the sight of the Trojans charging out of the tunnel and the sound of 108,000 fans roaring.
For the coast-to-coast interest in a collision of two storied programs.
For the colors. For the visuals.
This is a 10-MEG event, folks — a 10 million-eyeball game. And those are worth immense sums to the TV networks.
Streaming is gaining steam in the sports media ecosystem, but it’s not at the top of the chain.
The number of cable homes within the conference footprint no longer serves as the prime driver of media dollars.
Instead, value is rooted in advertising dollars, advertising dollars are hooked to ratings, and the biggest ratings — the games that draw more than 5 million viewers — come courtesy of showdowns on broadcast television.
It’s why the Big Ten added USC and the SEC added Texas.
It’s why Fox is all-in with the former and Disney has hitched its cart to the latter.
The networks want the ratings and have the cash. The schools provide the ratings and crave the revenue. And realignment is the manifestation of that two-way addiction.
If that doesn’t quite register, tune into CBS on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. When the Trojans take the field, the Big House visuals will be stunning.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Georgia (SEC): The Bulldogs have one of the toughest road schedules in the history of the sport with trips to No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Alabama and No. 5 Mississippi. But if they win the SEC title, the top seed will follow.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten): Whether it’s the Buckeyes, Oregon or Penn State — or someone else — the Big Ten champion will have the inside track to the No. 2 seed.
No. 3 Utah (Big 12): Based on what we have seen thus far, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State could be subbed for the Utes. The Big 12 race will be glorious mayhem.
No. 4 Miami (ACC): The clear favorite at this point in a conference race that looks more upside-down than right-side-up.
No. 12 UNLV (Group of Five): Our current projections give the Rebels a slight edge over Boise State, Memphis, Toledo and Northern Illinois. The race for the Group of Five slot will be fascinating.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: None. We need to see more from the likes of Clemson, Syracuse, Cal, Louisville and Pittsburgh before considering them for the at-large pool.
Big 12: None. Let’s presume the Big 12 eats its own with a voracity that prevents a second team from crafting a CFP-worthy resume.
Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State and USC. The Ducks finally looked like a playoff team in dismantling Oregon State. USC’s arrival on the CFP scene makes the Big Ten race exponentially more interesting.
SEC: Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. The top of the SEC is as good as the bottom of the SEC is bad. And by bad, we mean Toledo 41, Mississippi State 17.
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Clemson and Louisville. The Cardinals are on the far outskirts of the bubble, but a victory at Notre Dame in two weeks would change their positioning.
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The only certainty within the crowded Big 12 is that a third loss gets you eliminated from the CFP’s at-large pool.
Big Ten: Michigan and Nebraska. On a personal note, the Hotline would love to see a Nebraska-Oklahoma matchup in the opening round of the CFP with I.M. Hipp and Billy Sims as the honorary captains.
SEC: LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma. Sentences we did not expect to type: Missouri’s victory over Boston College added credibility to the Tigers’ resume.
Independents: Notre Dame. Until the Irish lose for a third time, they should be considered a bubble team. Don’t discount the impact of brand bias on the selection process.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Penn State. Not sure any team has looked as consistently impressive as the Vols through three weeks. Also not sure they have what it takes to claim the SEC crown. Winner plays No. 1 Georgia.
No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Mississippi. If this matchup becomes reality, take the Over. Whatever the number, take the Over. Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 USC. One of the four opening-round games will be played on Saturday night, Dec. 21, without NFL competition. This showdown of blue bloods would be an easy call for the prime-time window. Winner plays No. 3 Utah.
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 UNLV. The runner-up in the SEC or Big Ten is likely to receive the No. 5 seed, so this could be Georgia, Ohio State or perhaps Oregon, which could face its former coach, Mario Cristobal, in the quarterfinals. Winner plays No. 4 Miami.
Looking ahead: Week 4
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
USC at Michigan (12:30 p.m. on CBS): A matchup of defensive juggernauts — and who figured that would be the case with the Trojans?
Utah at Oklahoma State (1 p.m. on Fox): Utah’s first conference game in the Big 12 carries all sorts of implications for the title race. Quarterback Cam Rising is expected to play.
Tennessee at Oklahoma (4:30 p.m. on ABC): In past years, this would have been a non-conference game with the loser effectively eliminated from the playoff chase. Now, it’s the SEC opener for both, and the loser is very much alive.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
Related posts:
Pac-12 recruiting preview: Class rankings, portal support, UCLA’s rise, the ‘Coach Prime’ effect and NIL matters
Pac-12 media rights: Kliavkoff under pressure as saga nears conclusion and presidents express optimism
Business of Sports – Departures of Pac-12 executives give Kliavkoff the chance to cut salary costs
Wilner – Pac-12 football: Our post-spring practice projections for the 2023 conference race
Jon Wilner
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.