College Football Playoff committee makes no expansion move, but new idea emerges as deadline inches closer

We long ago lost count how many times College Football Playoff executives have gathered to discuss expanding the event — the total is well over a dozen. Unfortunately, it has become increasingly difficult to track the number of participating teams under consideration with various formats.

Expansion conversations initially focused on a 16-team field.

Then momentum built for 24.

Now, a 20-team playoff has entered the chat.

The CFP’s management committee met Monday (remotely) with an agenda focused on procedural matters, but a 20-team model was mentioned briefly, according to ESPN.

The distributor of that model? ESPN.

We’ll get to that momentarily. But let’s be clear on a few matters:

— No decision was reached Monday on the event’s future format. But the CFP faces a Dec. 1 deadline to notify ESPN, the exclusive rights-holder, of any plans to expand for the 2027 season. (The 12-team version remains in place this fall.)

— The Big Ten and SEC, which control the future format — they are merely required to consult with the other eight conferences — remain at odds over the field size.

The Big Ten favors 24 teams; the SEC favors 16 but would be satisfied with the status quo (i.e., 12).

Their media partners have exactly the same preferences. (Yep, shocking!)

Fox wants 24 because it would create 12 additional games available to the highest bidder. (CBS, NBC and other networks could, in theory, pursue agreements, but Fox executives have made no secret of their interest in a piece of the playoff pie.)

Meanwhile, ESPN prefers 16 teams because it would preserve the network’s exclusive broadcast contract, which remains in place unless the main event expands beyond 16.

How would a 20-team playoff impact the TV component?

Details are sketchy, but the concept calls for four play-in games with the winners advancing to the 16-team field.

If ESPN favors 16 teams with play-ins, the SEC probably does, too. But there’s no indication the Big Ten supports 20, at least in part because the finances won’t add up.

The play-in games are “not going to generate desired increase in (TV) rights fees as this plan won’t require a re-opening of the bidding process for the entire tournament,” retired Fox president Bob Thompson wrote on the social media platform X.

“Basically,” Thompson added, “(it) just allows ESPN to retain their (conference) champ games and throw a bone to somebody who wants these ‘last-in’ play-in games.”

Unless Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and the SEC’s Greg Sankey agree on the format, expansion will remain on hold.

That’s not the worst outcome, by the way. The 12-team model has been in place for just two seasons. Delaying another round of expansion will generate a larger sample size from which to base the eventual decision.

The CFP cannot afford to get the next move wrong. There’s too much at stake, including the value of the regular season, and no downsizing once expansion occurs.

What could end the current stalemate, which has existed for more than a year?

Cash, of course.

The CFP’s media advisors have spent several months attempting to assess the market value of the 24-team field proposed by Petitti.

Under the terms of ESPN’s contract, Fox (and other networks) would be allowed to bid on the new inventory if the field is larger than 16.

Put another way: Fox has no path to broadcasting the quarterfinals, semifinals and championship during the current contract cycle (through 2031).

The only games available would be opening-round matchups (e.g., No. 9 vs. No. 24, No. 10 vs. No. 23, etc.) and some second-round games.

As a result, CFP executives are unsure about the revenue windfall and have been hesitant to plow forward with expansion.

If the media consultants offer strong financial evidence to justify a 24-team field — many observers believe that will be the case — then a final decision, with the SEC’s approval, could come in time for the 2027 season.

The 20-team field feels like a last-gasp effort to derail the move to 24 and prevent Fox from entering ESPN’s henhouse.

The smart money is on 24, perhaps as soon as next year, whether the sport needs it or not.

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