Championship week picks: Arizona State’s fate in the Big 12 title game depends on (who else?) Cam Skattebo

Arizona State is one step from the promised land, but the toughest test remains. Iowa State poses a slew of problems for the Sun Devils in the Big 12 championship game and has few weaknesses.

But we found one.

The Cyclones are 96th nationally in rushing yards allowed (172.6 per game) and 112th in yards-per-carry allowed (5.0).

In their two losses, against Texas Tech and Kansas on back-to-back weekends in the middle of conference play, their run defense was sliced and diced when it mattered most.

The Red Raiders used a series of big gains on the ground to power their 71-yard, game-winning drive in the final minutes. And the Jayhawks? They churned for 237 yards throughout a decisive victory.

Cam Skattebo, the stage is yours.

Arizona State’s powerhouse tailback has toiled superbly all season while remaining in relative obscurity.

On Saturday morning, with ABC’s platform and no competition for eyeballs, Skattebo has the opportunity to propel Arizona State into the College Football Playoff and show millions of unfamiliar college football fans that he’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in the sport.

Because with their star receiver, Jordyn Tyson, unavailable (unspecified injury) and with their starting quarterback, Sam Leavitt, only a freshman, the Sun Devils need Skattebo to lead the way.

They need him to make big plays and small plays, on first down and third down, as a runner and receiver.

The final step in ASU’s amazing ascent depends on the player who has fueled its rise and best represents its mentality.

And the Sun Devils probably wouldn’t want it any other way.

To the picks …

Last week: 5-4-1
Season: 67-52-2
Five-star special: 7-7

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

American: Tulane (-4.5) at Army
Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The Green Wave played Navy recently — and won 35-0 — so the approach to defending Army’s triple option is fresh in their heads. Also part of our calculation: The Black Knights have a game next week that’s more important than the conference championship. Pick: Tulane

Mountain West: UNLV (+4) at Boise State
Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: If the Rebels handle the environment — not only the crowd but the near-freezing temperatures — this could be a last-possession-wins or last-mistake-loses affair. UNLV is winless against the Broncos in Mountain West play, but we expect that streak to end this week with an upset on the blue turf that knocks Boise State out of the CFP. Pick: UNLV

Big 12: Iowa State (+2.5) vs. Arizona State (in Arlington)
Kickoff: Saturday at 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: ASU coach Kenny Dillingham has made all the right moves but faces one of the game’s true masters in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. The Cyclones also have a veteran quarterback, Rocco Becht, who has thrown for more than 6,000 yards in his career. ASU opened as a 1-point underdog and is now a 2.5-point favorite — the betting public is riding the Dillingham train. That makes us lean the other way. Pick: Iowa State

SEC: Georgia (+2.5) vs. Texas (in Atlanta)
Kickoff: Saturday at 1 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Georgia isn’t playing at the level it was when the teams met in Austin in October, while the Longhorns are indisputably better. But the disparity on display in the Bulldogs’ 30-15 victory was so great that we aren’t convinced Texas has closed the gap entirely. The Dawgs and the points? Yes, please. Pick: Georgia

ACC: Clemson (+2.5) vs. SMU (in Charlotte)
Kickoff: Saturday at 5 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The key game of the weekend for the CFP selection process: If SMU wins, there will be minimal controversy; but if the Tigers rise up and grab the ACC’s automatic bid, chaos will ensue. Will the selection committee take Alabama at SMU’s expense? Pick: Clemson

Big Ten: Penn State (+3.5) vs. Oregon (in Indianapolis)
Kickoff: Saturday at 5 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The widest point spread of the Power Four championship games isn’t wide enough. The Ducks have the muscle to hold up against Penn State at the line of scrimmage and the speed to beat the Nittany Lions’ defense. Should be close into the fourth quarter before the Ducks take charge and win by at least two scores. Pick: Oregon

Straight-up winners: Tulane, UNLV, Iowa State, Georgia, Clemson and Oregon

Five-star special: Clemson. Coach Dabo Swinney is used to the big stage; the Mustangs are not. Also, we generally believe the result that will cause the greatest aggravation for the CFP selection committee is the most likely outcome.

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