Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team playoff race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
The fourth College Football Playoff rankings of 2024, scheduled for release Tuesday at 5 p.m. Pacific on ESPN, should feature significant changes following losses by No. 5 Indiana, No. 7 Alabama and No. 9 Mississippi.
Our focus will be on the following issues:
— How will the committee handle the SEC carnage?
A week ago, it was possible to envision the SEC collecting four at-large bids. But losses by Alabama, Mississippi and Texas A&M — all to unranked opponents — have twisted the plot.
In theory, that trio of weekend losers should drop far enough in the new rankings to have no viable path back into the CFP.
But the Hotline refuses to believe all the three-loss SEC teams are eliminated. In that regard, watch for South Carolina’s placement. The Gamecocks were No. 18 last week and could jump into range of an at-large berth.
— How far will Indiana fall?
The Hoosiers suffered their first loss of the season at Ohio State. Although there is zero shame in losing in Columbus, the visitors were not competitive in the fourth quarter in what was their only high-level test of the season.
All 10 of their wins have come against mediocre (at best) opponents, creating a huge hole in their resume. But the chaos in the SEC could limit Indiana’s fall from the No. 5 position and keep the Hoosiers on track for an at-large berth.
— Where will the ACC contingent land?
No conference benefited more from the SEC chaos than the ACC, which now has a path into the at-large field for its highest-ranked non-champion.
Whether that’s Miami, SMU or Clemson is uncertain at this point. But if the No. 8 Hurricanes and No. 13 Mustangs jump several spots on Tuesday, the conference will be in solid shape for a second bid.
— Where’s Boise State (relative to the Big 12)?
The Broncos (10-1) aren’t exactly dominating second-tier Mountain West foes, but they keep winning and are two victories from claiming the Group of Five’s automatic bid.
Last week, they were ranked higher than the top team from the Big 12 (Brigham Young) — meaning the Broncos were tracking for an opening-round bye.
But will that placement hold for another week?
Arizona State was nine spots behind the Broncos and won’t make up the entire gap. But if the Sun Devils get close, it could spell trouble for Boise State’s push for the bye.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes and the four highest seeds. The fifth conference winner will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten). The loser of the Big Ten title game probably receives the No. 5 seed — and what could be a more favorable draw into the semifinals.
No. 2 Georgia (SEC). The Bulldogs walloped UMass, then watched as the carnage in the SEC cleared their path into the conference championship. Which they will win.
No. 3 SMU (ACC). With their berth in the ACC title game assured, the Mustangs await either Miami or Clemson. The Hurricanes have the edge. (Beat Syracuse on Saturday, and they’re in.)
No. 4 Iowa State (Big 12). The Big 12 is utter mayhem, and the Cyclones might not qualify for the championship game. But they have thrived below the radar all season, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue.
No. 12 Boise State (Group of Five). If not the Broncos, then either UNLV, Tulane or Army will claim the Group of Five berth. Only Boise State has a chance to receive an opening-round bye, however.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: None. The conference has an immeasurably better chance to send a second team to the CFP after the implosion by the SEC’s ranked teams. But it all depends on how high Miami, SMU and even Clemson climb this week and which team ends up losing the conference championship.
Big 12: None. Parity is great for weekly thrills and terrible for at-large berths.
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon and Penn State. The Hoosiers don’t deserve a spot in the CFP — in our view, beating at least one ranked team should be a minimum requirement — but they might sneak in due to the SEC’s wobbly situation.
SEC: South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. The Gamecocks have quietly moved into position thanks to their quality wins and avoidance of bad losses, but they must beat Clemson this weekend.
Independent: Notre Dame. It’s a one-game season for the Irish: Beat USC, and they’re in; lose, and they’re out (probably).
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Clemson and Miami. We have SMU winning the conference title, but the Mustangs (10-1) should also be considered a bubble team if they lose next week in Charlotte.
Big 12: Arizona State, Brigham Young and Colorado. The problem for the Big 12 is really quite simple: The loser of the conference championship will have at least three losses.
Big Ten: None. It has been a four-team race for a month, with a muddled mass of mediocrity on the next tier of the standings. At least that simplifies things for the committee.
SEC: Alabama, Mississippi and Texas A&M. The Aggies have a path to the conference title but would need to beat Texas and Georgia. (Good luck.) Expect to hear the SEC’s media hype machine emphasizing strength-of-schedule this week and next as it works to help Alabama and Mississippi.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Tennessee. The order of seeds is lining up in a manner that would allow several cold-weather schools to host opening-round games. We are rooting for snow across the Midwest on the weekend of Dec. 20-21. Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Indiana. This Hoosier State non-rivalry matchup would add a layer of intrigue to the opening round. Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 South Carolina. Take a close look at Texas’ schedule and then ask yourself: Did the SEC grease the skids for the Longhorns in their inaugural season? The answer should be obvious. Winner plays No. 3 SMU
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State. From what we have seen of the Broncos lately (against second-rate opponents from the Mountain West), this rematch would not be close. Winner plays No. 4 Iowa State
Looking ahead: Week 14
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that could impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids. We could have listed 10 or 12 matchups this weekend — such is the sprawling, delicious impact of the expanded playoff. But these five stood out.
(All times Pacific)
South Carolina at Clemson (9 a.m. on ESPN): Great example of a game that would have been an afterthought under the four-team CFP but now has major consequences for both teams.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (9 a.m. on ABC): A must-win game for the Volunteers that would have been a lock in prior years, but Vanderbilt has beaten Alabama and lost to Missouri, Texas and LSU by a combined 13 points.
Arizona State at Arizona (12:30 on Fox): If the Sun Devils win, they will qualify for the Big 12 title game and move one step from a CFP appearance that we are pretty sure would initiate the apocalypse.
Notre Dame at USC (12:30 p.m. on CBS): All the power conferences are rooting for the Trojans to knock Notre Dame out of the at-large pool.
Texas at Texas A&M (4:30 p.m. on ABC): The renewal of a bitter rivalry that has SEC title and CFP stakes for both teams. It might draw as many eyeballs as Ohio State-Michigan.
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Jon Wilner
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.