CFB picks Week 14: Our detailed forecast for Oregon-Washington, Arizona State’s advantage, USC’s challenge and Cal’s opportunity

The Hotline’s call, after much consideration and several darts tossed: Oregon covers, and it’s close.

Those outcomes appear mutually exclusive with the Ducks favored by 18.5 points in their rivalry duel with Washington on Saturday afternoon in Autzen Stadium.

If they cover the points spread, the final score cannot, by definition, be close.

But the final score does not always reflect the back and forth across 60 minutes. We are focused on the nuance — on the flow and feel.

Our forecast calls for Washington’s defense to play well, as it has all season: The Huskies are 18th in the country in yards-per-play allowed (4.8), which compares favorably to Oregon’s success in that category (4.7 ypp allowed).

The Ducks won’t score on every possession; they won’t fly down the field with four- and five-play scoring drives. They won’t have 30 points before the Huskies settle in.

The issue is Washington’s offense, which has scored six, 16, 17 and 18 points in four Big Ten road games.

The Huskies are 124th nationally in third-down conversions in road/neutral field games and 129th in the country in Red Zone touchdown percentage in road/neutral field games.

They have been awful in situational football outside Husky Stadium.

We envision an early scoring drive or two for Washington, with packages of plays for rookie quarterback Demond Williams that baffle Oregon. But the Ducks eventually adjust, and UW’s offense struggles to collect first downs. By the close of the second quarter, the Ducks have a lead in the 14-10 or 20-14 range — not quite comfortable.

Halftime changes allow Oregon’s superior personnel to eventually take command.

The Ducks shut down Washington’s offense in the third quarter, preventing the Huskies from playing complementary football. Three-and-out becomes commonplace, and the defense begins to wear down. Oregon pops a big play or two.

As the fourth quarter begins, the Ducks lead by 10 or 14 points. Washington is one big play away from creating real drama. Fans don’t leave early, TV viewers don’t flip channels, but it’s clear the Huskies cannot win unless Oregon lends a hand with turnovers or breakdowns on special teams.

And then, inevitably, Washington’s defense gives way. With no help from the offense, with fatigue building and with their tendencies now apparent for Oregon to exploit, the Huskies wilt.

Oregon hits a big play, then another.

The 10-point margin becomes 17, then 20, then 27.

And Ducks coach Dan Lanning, well aware that victory margin is part of the playoff selection process — and fueled by two years of frustrating losses to the Huskies — orders the Ducks to remain in high gear until the final whistle.

By the end, what was a one-possession game in the third quarter becomes a blowout with five minutes remaining.

It’s close, and the Ducks cover.

Oregon 41, Washington 17 — or something in that range.

To the picks …

Last week: 5-4
Season: 62-48-1
Five-star special: 7-6

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

Oklahoma State (+16.5) at Colorado (Friday)
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: The Cowboys are winless on the field in conference play and just 1-7 against the spread, with the lone cover coming in the last-minute loss at Brigham Young. We can’t help but think coach Mike Gundy conjures an upside surprise for the finale of this lost season. And Colorado could be in letdown mode after the stumble at Kansas. Pick: Oklahoma State

Stanford (+3) at San Jose State (Friday)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on CBS
Comment: Great chance for San Jose State to beat its neighbor for the first time in 18 years. The Cardinal have played well recently but are fresh off a gut-punch loss to Cal, and we aren’t convinced the sense of urgency will be at the level necessary. SJSU has more playmakers than you might think. Pick: San Jose State

Utah (+9.5) at UCF (Friday)
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Utes are down to fourth-string quarterback Luke Bottari, who has thrown 21 career passes. Long trips on short weeks with backup QBs are not a recipe for (potentially) sending your head coach out on a high note. Pick: UCF

Tennessee (-11) at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: The Commodores are 7-1 against the spread when facing Power Four opponents, with the loss coming earlier this month to South Carolina. The Vols are 3-5 under the same circumstances. The trend is our friend. Pick: Vanderbilt

Arizona State (-9) at Arizona
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The line opened at 8.5 points and has ticked up slightly. Three months of results reflect a disparity in performance far greater than the difference in personnel. Arizona has the more experienced quarterback and the best player on either roster (receiver Tetairoa McMillan), but the Sun Devils are more confident, healthier and possess stronger lines of scrimmage. Pick: Arizona State

Cal (+13.5) at SMU
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: We like the Bears as road underdogs, love them as double-digit road dogs and are head-over-heels for them as double-digit road dogs facing an opponent that has already clinched a berth in the ACC championship game. Pick: Cal

Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: In addition to having stout offensive and defensive lines (as usual), the Irish are well-stocked with playmakers. That’s a bad combination for USC, which doesn’t do anything at a high level, except blow fourth-quarter leads. Pick: Notre Dame

Wyoming (+17) at Washington State
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Had this game been played a month ago, we wouldn’t have gladly taken WSU and given the points. But the Cowboys have shown signs of life lately while the Cougars have shown signs of regression. The home team should win on Senior Day, but it could be close throughout. Pick: Wyoming

Washington (+18.5) at Oregon
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: In contrast to the meeting 51 weeks ago in the Pac-12 championship game, the stakes are not high this week. Washington has a bowl berth clinched and, win or lose, cannot significantly change its postseason outlook. Meanwhile, Oregon has a berth in the Big Ten championship locked up. The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff depends on the result in Indianapolis next week, not Eugene this weekend. Pick: Oregon.

Houston (+12.5) at Brigham Young
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The final ESPN #AfterDark broadcast of the season matches a home team playing for a berth in the Big 12 championship against a visitor with a two-game losing streak that has been eliminated from contention for everything. So why is the line only 12.5 points? Because the oddsmakers want the public to jump on BYU. We won’t bite. Pick: Houston

Straight-up winners: Colorado, San Jose State, UCF, Tennessee, Arizona State, SMU, Notre Dame, Washington State, Oregon and Brigham Young

Five-star special: Cal. The Bears have covered the spread in three of their four road games and have become accustomed to long flights — this will be their fifth trip across the Rockies. In his eight seasons, coach Justin Wilcox is 27-16 as a road underdog.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline