Big Ten football: Breaking down Washington’s loss at Rutgers (we’ve seen the script before)

Washington traveled a long way to replicate a recent experience in its backyard. While the specifics of the three-point loss at Rutgers on Friday night differed from the five-point loss to Washington State in the middle of the month, the framing was comparable: Yardage dominance, squandered opportunities, baffling decisions and, ultimately, defeat.

Our reaction to the 21-18 loss to the Scarlet Knights:

— Let’s start with the 40,000-foot view: This was an unprecedented task, with a team located on the West Coast playing a conference game on the East Coast on a Friday night — a short week of preparation combined with a three-time zone trip courtesy of conference realignment.

And it’s not like the Huskies (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) were facing a Big Ten bottom feeder, either. Rutgers (4-0, 1-0) has a top-tier coach in Greg Schiano and the personnel necessary for a mid-level finish.

The short week, long trip and stout opponent could have immediately overwhelmed the Huskies, but effort and energy were present from the first play to the last.

But we wonder: Did the circumstances impact their execution, which was woefully lacking in several instances?

— Washington dominated the Scarlet Knights in most categories, including the number of mistakes:

From the personal foul penalties to missing an open receiver in the end zone …

From the three errant field goals to the clock mismanagement prior to the two-minute timeout in the fourth quarter …

From the illegal substitution penalty that turned a blocked field goal by UW into a touchdown for Rutgers …

From the poor third-down offense (UW converted 2-of-12 chances) to the dreadful third-down defense (Rutgers converted 7-of-15 opportunities) …

In every regard, discipline was lacking.

— To that end, it was reminiscent of the performance against Washington State at Lumen Field two weeks ago, when UW committed 16 penalties in the 24-19 loss.

In their two defeats, the Huskies have gained 973 total yards compared to 683 for WSU and Rutgers, a discrepancy of 293 yards.

Yet in both games, the more disciplined team won.

It’s worth noting that Washington is 121st nationally in penalties per game (8.6) and 122nd in penalty yards per game (80.8). That’s not entirely surprising given the massive turnover in players and coaches.

Nor does it necessarily follow a trend for first-year coach Jedd Fisch, whose team (Arizona) was in the middle third of the Football Bowl Subdivision last season in both penalties and penalty yards per game.

— Another nugget deserving of attention:

Washington is 3-0 against opponents with losing or .500 records thus far (Weber State, Eastern Michigan and Northwestern) and 0-2 against teams with winning records (WSU and Rutgers).

And that, folks, is the time-tested manifestation of mediocrity — of teams that move the ball but cannot finish drives, teams that win the stats but lose the scoreboard, teams that muddle through 12-game seasons with stretches of brilliance and moments of incompetence.

The Huskies found ways to win last year; they are finding ways to lose this season, at least against the better teams on their schedule.

— That said, this is not necessarily a fixed existence.

If tailback Jonah Coleman and receivers Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston maintain their standard of playmaking, the lines of scrimmage clean up the mistakes and the coaching staff attends to details, the scale could tilt toward success.

But the upcoming schedule is stacked with opponents built to pounce on opportunities offered up by UW mistakes, which brings us to the final lesson of Week 5: the bowl math.

— The Huskies must win three of their final seven games in order to reach the postseason — a task that appears far easier than reality suggests.

Four of the opponents are ranked: No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Penn State, No. 12 Michigan and No. 13 USC.

Two more foes, Indiana and Iowa, could be ranked by the end of the weekend, and UW is on the road against both.

As we see the remaining schedule, the Huskies will be clear favorites only once, at home against UCLA.

Put that game in the victory column and UW must win two of the other six.

It’s a precarious position, for sure.

Clean up the gaffes, and the bowl math turns manageable.

But if the mistakes continue at the current rate, UW is staring at two months of advanced calculus.

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