Best of the West: What’s the deal with Brigham Young’s lofty NET ranking? It doesn’t reflect the flawed resume

The Best of the West rankings examine the top teams across the Mountain and Pacific Times Zones. They will be published in this space each Wednesday through the conclusion of the regular season.

The NET rankings, while a critical piece of the NCAA Tournament selection and seeding process, are hardly a wholly accurate representation of the 68-team field.

As an example, we present Brigham Young.

The Cougars are No. 4 in the latest NET rankings, which, for the uninitiated, appears to track with a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs.

Yet there is no universe where BYU would receive a top seed if the selection committee produced a 68-team field today.

Nor would the Cougars be a No. 2 seed or even a No. 3.

Their resume simply doesn’t hold up.

BYU has just three Quadrant I wins, while the teams ranked above them in the NET (Houston, Purdue and Arizona) all have at least four.

Also, eight of BYU’s 14 victories are of the Quadrant IV (lowest) variety, a distribution that likely would make the committee cringe.

What’s more, the Cougars’ non-conference schedule strength, a crucial component to the selection process, is 306th nationally (out of 362 teams), according to the influential Pomeroy efficiency ratings.

The best thing about BYU’s resume is the absence of bad losses — the three defeats are all of the Quadrant I variety — but that’s hardly enough to support a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed.

So why does the complicated NET algorithm hold the Cougars in such high regard?

The lack of Quadrant III and IV losses helps, for sure. And while scoring margin isn’t part of the calculation, there is an efficiency component baked into the NET. The Cougars have several decisive wins over teams from multi-bid conferences (San Diego State, Arizona State, N.C. State), which translates to high marks for efficiency.

But that’s the best explanation we can offer — the NET love for BYU is somewhat of a mystery.

(At BracketMatrix.com, which aggregates dozens of NCAA Tournament projections, the Cougars are currently pegged for a No. 6 seed.)

What’s not up for speculation, however, is the reality awaiting BYU in March. Barring a dramatic uptick in the strength of their resume, the Cougars won’t be part of the discussion for a No. 1 seed.

To the Best of the West …

1. Arizona (13-4/4-2 Pac-12)

Last week: 1
Results: lost at WSU 73-70, beat USC 82-67
NET ranking: No. 3
Next up: USC (Wednesday)
Comment: The Wildcats are undefeated when Kevin Durant attends their games but under .500 when their defense does not.

2. Brigham Young (14-3/2-2 Big 12)

Last week: 3
Results: won at UCF 63-58, beat Iowa State 87-72
NET ranking: No. 4
Next up: at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Comment: The assessment above wasn’t intended to discredit the Cougars but, rather, to provide context on the NET rankings, which are listed here each week and cited often by media outlets across the country.

3. Colorado State (15-3/2-2 MW)

Last week: 4
Results: beat Air Force 78-69 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 22
Next up: vs. UNLV (Friday)
Comment: The Rams have time to refine their game before the Mountain West schedule turns rugged over a two-week stretch starting in the middle of February.

4. Oregon (15-3/5-0 Pac-12)

Last week: 5
Results: beat Cal 80-73
NET ranking: No. 50
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: The Pac-12’s regular-season champion has missed the NCAAs in the past — it happened to Washington in 2012, for example — and the Ducks are in danger if they manage to thread a difficult needle over the next two months: Enough wins to claim the title but a handful of bad losses.

5. San Diego State (15-3/4-1 MW)

Last week: 2
Results: lost at New Mexico 88-70, beat Nevada 71-59
NET ranking: No. 20
Next up: at Boise State (Saturday)
Comment: On the bright side for the Aztecs: Three of the toughest road trips in the Mountain West (Albuquerque, Boise and Fort Collins) will be in their rearview mirror by the close of January.

6. New Mexico (15-3/3-2 MW)

Last week: 10
Results: beat San Diego State 88-70 and Utah State 99-86
NET ranking: No. 28
Next up: at Air Force (Saturday)
Comment: Another team whose NET ranking masks a flawed resume: 12 of New Mexico’s 14 victories are of the Quadrant II and IV variety. That’s a concerning tip of the scales.

7. Gonzaga (11-5/2-1 WCC)

Last week: 6
Results: lost at Santa Clara 77-76
NET ranking: No. 46
Next up: at Pepperdine (Thursday)
Comment: We noted Gonzaga’s flawed resume in this space two weeks ago, and nothing has changed the trajectory. In fact, the Zags have a steep uphill climb due to the paucity of quality wins available on the upcoming schedule.

8. Nevada (15-3/2-2 MW)

Last week: 7
Results: lost to Boise State 64-56 and at SDSU 71-59
NET ranking: No. 45
Next up: at Wyoming (Saturday)
Comment: The Wolf Pack caught Boise State at just the right time (after BSU’s uplifting win over Colorado State) and the Aztecs at exactly the wrong time (after a decisive loss at New Mexico).

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9. Utah State (16-2/4-1 MW)

Last week: 9
Results: won at UNLV 87-86, lost at New Mexico 99-86
NET ranking: No. 24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (Saturday)
Comment: The result in Albuquerque was Utah State’s first defeat since Nov. 11 (to Bradley). But the 15-game winning streak, while impressive in length, was notably lacking in what the Hotline would consider first-rate victories.

10. Grand Canyon (16-1/6-0 WAC)

Last week: 11
Results: beat Abilene Christian 74-64 and Tarleton State 74-48
NET ranking: No. 41
Next up: vs. Utah Valley (Thursday)
Comment: The quality of GCU’s lone loss, to South Carolina, will gain clarity in the coming weeks as the Gamecocks face Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi — three of the SEC’s top teams.

11. Utah (12-5/3-3 Pac-12)

Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat UCLA 90-44, lost at Stanford 79-73
NET ranking: No. 23
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: With the Utes winless on the road in conference play, this seems like a fine time to remind readers that the selection committee places considerable weight on success away from home. After all, the NCAAs are played on neutral courts.

12. San Francisco (14-4/3-0 WCC)

Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat San Diego 83-63 and Portland 96-69
NET ranking: No. 44
Next up: vs. LMU (Thursday)
Comment: We also considered Saint Mary’s for this spot, along with Colorado, UC Irvine, Santa Clara, Washington State and Boise State.

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