Best bets as Arizona emerges as the championship favorite

It’s Arizona’s championship to lose, according to BetMGM, after the Wildcats looked the part while demolishing Long Island in the first round.

They are the 3.25-to-1 favorite, ahead of Michigan and Duke.

Prior to the tournament, Duke was the frontrunner (3-to-1), followed by Michigan (3.5-to-1) and then Arizona (4-to-1).

But the round of 64 changed public perception. The Wildcats showed zero sings of rust or boredom, blasting to a 24-point halftime lead over Long Island on their way to a 92-58 victory.

Meanwhile, Duke struggled against Siena, requiring a second-half rally to avoid becoming the third No. 1 seed to lose in the first round.

The Blue Devils were out of sorts, which makes sense. They are missing two injured starters: point guard Caleb Foster and big man Patrick Ngongba, a potential Lottery Pick in the NBA Draft who could return for the second round. (Foster is out indefinitely.)

The other pre-tournament favorite, Michigan, beat Howard by 21 points, but the game was competitive early in the second half. The Wolverines are without a key piece, as well: guard L.J. Cason has been out since late February, and Michigan has not been as dominant without him.

The Wildcats, who have won 10 in a row, have no such issues.

For the highest seeds, history suggests a connection between early-round tournament dominance and the end result: Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, every No. 1 seed that has won the championship defeated its first-round opponent by at least 15 points.

Michigan cleared that bar (by six), as did Florida, the fourth No. 1 seed and a 7-to-1 favorite for the championship. The Gators beat Prairie View A&M by 59 points, one of the largest margins in tournament history.

If early-round efficiency is a harbinger for the No. 1s, Arizona and Florida, which dueled in the season opener in Las Vegas — the Wildcats won by six — could be on collision course to meet again, in the season finale.

To the picks …

First round: 1-7
Total: 1-7

All picks against the spread
Lines courtesy of vegasinsider.com

No. 2 Purdue (-7.5) over No. 7 Miami
Tipoff: Sunday at 9 a.m. on CBS
Comment: Way back in early November, Purdue was atop the AP preseason poll. The road to this point has been rocky for the Boilermakers, who lost eight games, but they are rolling at just the right time and stand as a serious threat to win the West.

No. 5 St. John’s (-3.5) over No. 4 Kansas (in San Diego)

Tipoff: Sunday at 2:15 p.m. on CBS
Comment: One of the most anticipated games of the second round matches two Hall of Fame coaches in St. John’s Rick Pitino and KU’s Bill Self. We give Pitino the edge. Self’s team has been inconsistent, as we saw Friday night when the Jayhawks came perilously close to blowing a 26-point lead against Cal Baptist.

No. 9 Utah State (+11.5) over No. 1 Arizona (in San Diego)
Tipoff: Sunday at 4:50 p.m. on truTV
Comment: The Aggies are more athletic than they appear, run quality set plays and utilize a funky matchup zone defense that is difficult to decode with limited practice time between games. Put another way: This won’t be easy for the Wildcats, at least for 36 minutes. And if Arizona doesn’t play well, the outcome could be in doubt until the final seconds.

No. 7 UCLA (+4) over No. 2 UConn (in Philadelphia)
Tipoff: Sunday at 5:45 p.m. on TNT
Comment: A difficult game to project, especially with the uncertain status of two key starters: UConn point guard Silas Demary and UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau. The Bruins saved their best for March, while the Huskies have not been crisp recently and struggled to eliminate No. 15 Furman in the opening round. If you enjoy watching angry coaches, this is appointment TV.

Straight-up winners: Gonzaga, Nebraska, Arkansas, St. John’s, Arizona and UCLA

Five-star special: St. John’s. Kansas will have the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon in San Diego (wing Darryn Peterson). But St. John’s will have the better coach, and the better team.

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