Wilner Hotline – The Case for Oregon over Washington St. for NCAA Bid

The closer we get to Selection Sunday, the deeper we dig into the analytics. Today’s discussion: Oregon, Washington State and the NET rankings.

The rankings are a convenient way to measure the totality of a team’s resume, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee will take a more detailed approach to evaluating at-large candidates and seeding the 68-team field.

For example: Houston is No. 3 in the current NET rankings, which seemingly translates to a No. 1 seed. But the Cougars have just one Quadrant 1 victory and aren’t close to being a top seed — they’re more like a No. 4 or 5.

Murray State is No. 23 in the NET, which equates to a No. 6 seed. But the Racers have only two Quadrant I wins and are likely a No. 8 or 9 seed.

Meanwhile, Iowa State is No. 42 in the NET, suggesting the Cyclones are firmly on the bubble as a No. 11 seed. But with nine Quadrant I wins, they’re a lock for the at-large field as a No. 6 or 7 seed.

When the selection committee scrubs the resumes next week in Indianapolis, quality wins (Quadrant I wins) will be essential to the determination of bids and seeds.

Also crucial to the process: Each team’s non-conference strength of schedule (SOS), the number of bad losses, and the percentage of total wins that come against third-rate opponents.

The committee doesn’t want cupcakes. It wants meat.

For those wondering why we believe Oregon is better positioned than Washington State to make the NCAA field, that’s the reason.

The Cougars are higher in the NET (by one spot) but have a weaker resume in the areas that truly matter.

Quadrant I wins
Oregon: 3
WSU: 0

Non-conference SOS ranking (per Pomeroy ratings):
Oregon: No. 76
WSU: No. 255

Quadrant IV losses:
Oregon: 0
WSU: 1

Quadrant III and IV wins as a percentage of total wins:
Oregon: 59%
WSU: 75%

The Ducks and Cougars won’t compete against each other in a two-team resume showdown.

Instead, they will be evaluated in groups of four or six teams. Those with enough votes will move into the at-large field; the rest will remain in the scrubbing process, assessed against another group of contenders. More voting. More scrubbing. Eventually, 36 teams will be placed into the field.

(Conference affiliation plays no role. Nor does placement in the conference standings.)

In the metrics that matter, the Ducks are in better shape than Washington State — despite where the teams stand in the current NET rankings.

To the Hotline’s latest NCAA projections …

— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.

(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)

Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Listed in order of NET ranking (through Tuesday) …

Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 2
Record vs. Quad I and II: 15-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-0
NCAA projection: No. 1 seed
Comment: Wyoming has slipped a bit in the NET (to No. 44), but Illinois (No. 14) and Michigan (No. 32) are holding steady and will provide resume support in case the Wildcats lose this week or early in the Pac-12 tournament.

UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 12
Record vs. Quad I and II: 11-6
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-0
NCAA projection: No. 6 seed
Comment: As long as each member of the core rotation is healthy two weeks from today, the Bruins should be one of the last 16 standing.

USC
NET Ranking: No. 30
Record vs. Quad I and II: 10-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 15-1
NCAA projection: No. 6 seed
Comment: If so inclined, one could make the case that elite teams don’t get blown out at home in big games no matter the opponent. And to be honest, we are so inclined. The Trojans aren’t elite, despite the 25 wins.

Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 57
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Cougars have two two-point losses to USC and a three-point loss to Oregon. Had any of those three turned out differently, they would have a real shot to make the at-large pool.

Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 58
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-2
NCAA projection: No. 12 seed
Comment: The Ducks need a strong finish from SMU to bolster their resume. Goodness, how they need a strong finish from SMU.

Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 75
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 13-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Our ceiling for the Buffaloes, if they beat Utah and reach the finals of the Pac-12 tournament: The so-called ‘Next Four Out.’

Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 104
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-15
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 5-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: We expect the Sun Devils to win their opener in Las Vegas regardless of the opponent. We’d like to see the bracket before picking them to reach the semifinals.

Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 111
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-12
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Extremely unlikely the Cardinal ends up facing Cal in the opening round next week, which means it actually has a chance to advance.

Utah
NET Ranking: No. 121
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-14
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Feels like the Utes have been ranked in the No. 120-129 range since the end of November, regardless of the ups and (mostly) downs of their season.

Washington
NET Ranking: No. 123
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-10
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Have the Huskies regressed? Nope. Their schedule got vastly more difficult a few weeks ago and, predictably, the losses followed.

Cal
NET Ranking: No. 129
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-14
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: We’re still incredulous that a team could score 53 points and win by 14.

Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 254
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-18
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-7
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: How bad is OSU’s resume? The next-lowest Power Six team in the NET rankings is Georgia, a full 46 spots above the Beavers.

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